The Great Storm

Also known as the ’87 Hurricane, and 87J in the insurance industry, the storm struck the UK in the early hours of 16th October 1987. The storm was labelled a “hurricane” by the media following the infamous words of Michael Fish, who stated “a hurricane is not on the way” during a forecast for the BBC (BBC, 2007). The fact that Michael Fish was referring to Florida, and did warn the UK to "batten down the hatches there's some really stormy weather on the way", largely escaped attention.

Storm formation and track
Associated damage and insured losses

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 Formation and track

The origins of the system can be traced back to the Bay of Biscay where a cyclone began forming in the early hours of 15th October. A marked contrast across the polar front was present at the time, generating a strong thermal gradient. During 15th October the cyclone deepened and moved northwards, reaching the English channel at midnight, with a central pressure of 953 hPa. The system made landfall in Cornwall before tracking north-east towards Devon and then over the Midlands, going out to sea via the Wash. The depression tracked quickly across the UK while filling slowly, with the strongest gusts, of up to 50 m/s, recorded along the south-eastern edge of the storm, severely affecting Essex and Kent. Records were not only set by high windspeeds, but the rises in pressure seen with the passage of the warm front were exceptional. Several stations in southern parts of England saw pressure rise over 8 hPa in an hour, with the most rapid recorded at Hurn, in Hampshire, with a one hour rise of 12 hPa (UKMO, 1988).

Track of the October 1987 storm. Source: Hanson et al. (2004)

  Damage and Losses

The unusual southern track of the storm across England, coupled with the fact that the trees were still in leaf, resulted in unprecedented damage. The strongest gusts measured in the UK exceeded 50 m/s. The prominent wind direction was from the south (originating from 170-190 degrees), markedly different from the westerly direction (230-280 degrees) normally associated with the highest windspeeds at most stations. Windspeeds from this southerly direction and at this time of year (when trees are in leaf) are very uncommon.

Munich Re (1999) reported the storm cost insurers just under £1.85bn £(equivalent £££€4bn in 2009), with total economic losses in the region of £££2.2bn (equivalent to £5bn in 2009). Over 25 million people were affected by the storm, though fortunately only 21 deaths resulted from it (Baxter et al., 2001). The fact that the storm struck in the early hours of the morning meant the number of casualties were kept to a minimum as few people were on the roads or outside of their homes. However, hundreds of thousands of people were left without power for several days.

Some 15 million trees were felled, blocking transport routes and leaving widespread structural damage to buildings across England and Wales. The combination of the trees being in leaf, coupled with a high soil moisture content brought about by wet antecedent conditions, meant trees were highly susceptible to being uprooted. Compounding this was the fact that south-east England had not suffered a severe windstorm for several decades, enabling many ageing trees to survive in that period, while weakening and becoming highly susceptible to wind damage. Levels of damage, not just to trees but also to structures, are likely to be higher when the impacted region has not experienced a windstorm for several years.

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 References

Baxter, P. J., B. E. Lee, T. A. Wyatt and R. J. Spence (2001). Windstorms and Climate Change. In Department of Health (Ed), Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK - Expert Group on Climate Change and Health in the UK. 238.

Hanson, C., T. Holt and J. Palutikof (2004). An Integrated Assessment of  the potential for Change in Storm Activity over Europe:  Implications  for Insurance and Forestry in the UK. Norwich, Tyndall Centre: 98. 

Munich Re (1999). Topics 2000: Natural Catastrophes – the current position. Munich, Munich Reinsurance Company: 126.

UKMO (1988). The Meteorological Office report on the storm of 15/16 October 1987. Meteorological Magazine 117: 97-140.